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Leading Through Uncertainty: Why Spotting Patterns Beats Chasing Perfection

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Let’s be real, modern leadership is a pressure cooker. Deadlines, decisions, shifting priorities, and a never-ending stream of Slack pings. It’s not that you’re not confident. It’s that you’re human. And leadership during uncertain times? It’s a whole different beast.

In today’s chaos, AI shaking things up, economic curveballs, hybrid work headaches, and cultural divides, leaders are expected to be clear, kind, and crushing it. All at once. All the time. No wonder even the best leaders feel like they’re running on fumes.

But here’s the kicker: that stress response? It’s not a flaw. It’s your brain doing what it’s wired to do.

The SCARF Model: Your Brain on Stress

David Rock’s SCARF model breaks down five social triggers that flip your brain into threat mode:

  • Status – Someone questions your authority? You get defensive or go full control freak.
  • Certainty – Plans change (again)? You freeze or obsess over tiny tasks.
  • Autonomy – Feel boxed in? You either micromanage or ghost.
  • Relatedness – Team tension? You pull back or stop trusting.
  • Fairness – Something feels off? You get hypersensitive or check out.

These aren’t signs of bad leadership. They’re signals. And if you want to get better at leading through change and uncertainty, you’ve got to learn to read them.

From Freak-Out to Focus: Leading Through Uncertain Times

Imagine this: You’re in a big meeting. A teammate shares a plan they’ve poured their soul into. Someone shoots it down in front of everyone. They double down, get defensive. That’s not just ego; it’s a status threat.

Or maybe it’s you. You’ve spent weeks crafting a strategy. Just when it’s ready to roll, the company pivots. Again. You hesitate. You stall. That’s a certainty threat. The ground keeps shifting, and it’s exhausting.

But here’s the move: instead of reacting, recognize the pattern. That’s the first step in leadership in times of uncertainty. Spot the trigger, then choose your response.

Leading Through Change and Uncertainty Means Getting Real

  • Snapping at someone? Maybe it’s not them, it’s your fairness meter going off.
  • Team not stepping up? Maybe they feel like they’ve got zero autonomy.
  • Project stuck? Maybe it’s not the budget, it’s the lack of clarity.

When you understand what’s really going on, you can lead with intention. And that’s what leadership during uncertain times is all about. Not being perfect. Being aware. Being human.

Why Old-School Leadership Training Doesn’t Cut It Anymore

Let’s be blunt: most leadership programs are stuck in the past. Long on theory, short on reality. They don’t prepare you for the chaos of leading through uncertainty.

The result? Strategy stalls. People disengage. Innovation dies. Culture tanks.

At Daggerwing Group, we see leadership as a competitive edge, not a checkbox. And we’ve got a different playbook.

Our Five Rules for Leading Through Uncertainty

  1. Mindset First – No change sticks without the right mindset. We build resilience and clarity.
  2. Embedded Learning – Real growth happens in real challenges, not in a classroom.
  3. Personalized Journeys – One-size-fits-all is a waste of time. We tailor it to your world.
  4. Systemic Integration – Leadership has to live in your KPIs, culture, and daily grind.
  5. Practice Over Theory – You don’t need more theory. You need reps. Safe spaces to try, fail, and grow.

Leading Through Uncertain Times Starts With You

The future belongs to leaders who stop pretending they’ve got it all figured out. Who get honest—ruthlessly honest—about how pressure shapes their behavior.

So next time you feel yourself spiraling into control mode, ask: What’s being threatened here? What pattern am I stuck in? What would it look like to respond with intention, not instinct?

Because leadership in times of uncertainty isn’t about being flawless. It’s about being self-aware enough to break the cycle and bold enough to lead anyway.

Gisela is a Managing Consultant with Daggerwing Group. She has a background in psychology, HR and Organizational Development which has fostered her keen interest in why people behave the way they do. She is a lifetime learner of behavioral science and tries to find robust and creative ways to weave it into work. Gisela loves to travel and uses the opportunity to try new foods and take colorful photographs.
Chris Thornton is a Senior Principal and member of the global leadership team at Daggerwing Group. In his role, Chris serves as a source of strategic counsel for Senior Executives with client firms, advising them on how to help clients achieve Executive alignment, transform their cultures and equip and enable people managers to lead and embed change. An expert in the people side of change with both client-side and consulting experience, Chris has worked with leading companies including Nestlé, Pfizer, and GE Aviation to do change right and make it stick. He is also an active speaker on business transformation, a driver of innovation in Daggerwing’s breadth of change consulting services, and the host of Daggerwing Group’s podcast, Change@Work. Chris and his wife were featured in the New York Times for their love of pie.